The location of the Southwest and the topographical extremes across this area strongly influence its weather. USA 107(50):2125621262. Trees killed by bark beetles at Cameron Pass, Colorado, 2011. The Santa Catalina Mountains near Tucson, Arizona are surrounded desert in which saguaro cacti grow. Dry conditions are common throughout the Great Plains, Colorado Plateau, and Basin and Range. Fossil ammonoid (Nigericeras scotti) from the Late Cretaceous Greenhorn Limestone, Baca County, Colorado. A major contributing factor to this event was a geological change that occurred far to the south. Summer temperatures in this region rarely rise above 60 F during the day, while winter temperatures hover around 30 F due to the temperate . On the other hand, New Mexico and northern Mexico are near or a bit below average. Historic data from Livneh et al. During winter months, daytime temperatures may average 70 degrees F, with night temperatures often falling to freezing of slightly below in the lower desert valleys." Scale bar = 5 centimeters (about 2 inches). Although the mountain building that occurred during this event was mostly far to the east, the Southwest was influenced by both fluctuating sea levels and a few significant tectonic changes. Check out Toms recent post on the drought in Arizona to understand more about how drought works in this region. The warming conditions alone can be impactful, drying out soils quicker during breaks in monsoon rainfall, for example (2). During the Permian, shallow marine waters gave way to lowland coastal areas across portions of the Southwest. Large lakes covered parts of northern Utah and Colorado. The rainy season would have been critical for Native Americans for thousands of years, and, for some Native American tribes, continues to be so. Left:Jaw with teeth. In addition, temperature increases and recent drought have resulted in earlier spring snowmelt and decreased snow cover on the lower slopes of high mountains, bringing about more rapid runoff and increased flooding. :https://earthathome.org/de/what-is-climate/, Digital Encyclopedia of Earth Science: Evidence for and causes of recent climate change:https://earthathome.org/de/recent-climate-change/, Digital Encyclopedia of Earth Science: Climate change mitigation: https://earthathome.org/de/climate-change-mitigation/, Digital Encyclopedia of Earth Science: Climate change adaptation: https://earthathome.org/de/climate-change-adaptation/, [emailprotected]: Quick guides & FAQ: Climate and Energy:https://earthathome.org/quick-faqs/#climate, [emailprotected]: Here on Earth: Introduction to Climate: https://earthathome.org/hoe/climate/. One especially alarming detail about the Calf Canyon fire is that it was originally set in January 2022. Southwestern states are stepping up their use and production of renewable energy. What is the weather like in the Southwest region in summer? Light precipitation travels eastward over the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountains after dropping heavy snowfall in areas of high elevation. The inner canyon temperatures are extreme and hot, with a lower elevation of about 2400 feet (732 meters). Precipitation accumulation over the past 12 months, shown as a percent of the average mid-August through mid-August total. As of 2010, bark beetles in Arizona and New Mexico have affected more than twice the forest area burned by wildfires in those states. The elevation of Bear Lake is about 2880 meters (9450 feet). The globe about 485 million years ago, near the Cambrian-Ordovician boundary. The Southwest relies on the slow melt of mountain snowpack throughout the spring and summer, when water demands are highest. Parts of the Southwest are also experiencing long-term reductions in mountain snowpack (see the Snowpack indicator), which accounts for a large portion of the regions water supply. The Great Plains receive warm, moist air moving north from the Gulf of Mexico, and cold, dry air moving in from the Rocky Mountains and the northern U.S. Where these air masses meet, vigorous mixing causes thunderstorms. At the close of the Mesozoic, global climatealthough warmer than todaywas cooler than at the start of the era. The Southwest contributes significantly to climate change. Higher elevations (such as those found in the Rockies and on the Colorado Plateau) are also cooler, with approximately a 1.5C (3F) decrease in mean annual temperature for each 300-meter (1000-foot) increase in elevation. The climate was drier than that of the Carboniferous, and mudflats with salt and gypsum formed across the Southwestern states. 2021. Scale bar = 1 centimeter (about 0.4 inches). You mentioned, if I understood correctly, that a La Nina pattern during winter months leads to an increase in the North American Monsoon in late summer. (2019)Biology Letters15: 20190114(Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, images cropped, reconfigured, resized, and relabeled). Some areas were more than 2F warmer than average (see Figure 1). This salt is part of the Late Carboniferous (Pennsylvanian) Paradox Formation. Sci. Low annual precipitation, clear skies, and year-round warm climate over much of the Southwest are due in large part to a quasi-permanent subtropical high-pressure ridge over the region. The result may be more destructive wildfires like the Calf Canyon-Hermit Peak wildfire in New Mexico. Volcanic activity intensified in the Southwest, and the Basin and Range region began to form, leading to the topography that is seen in those areas today (i.e., low valleys alternating with high mountain ranges). How would that result in less total JulyAugust rain? Good question! Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, Scenarios for Climate Assessment and Adaptation, Image by The High Fin Sperm Whale, created from images by NOAA National Weather Service training material (Wikimedia Commons, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, Modified from a map by Adam Peterson (Wikimedia Commons, Photo by Bob Wick, Bureau of Land Management (flickr, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, Photo by Richard Stephen Haynes (Wikimedia Commons, Photo of USNM PAL 165239 by Crinoid Type Project (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain), Photos of YPM IP 529539 by Jessica Utrup, 2015 (Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History/YPM, CC0 1.0 Universal/Public Domain Dedication, Photo of USNM P 38052 by Frederic Cochard (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life: Western Interior Seaway, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International, Photo of USNM 166396 from the Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, Inset image from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PIA03397), Photo by Jeffrey Beall (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, Photo by Kenneth Carpenter (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommerical 2.0 Generic license, Photo by Center for Land Use Interpretation, Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 license, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, Photo by Dr. David Goodrich, NOAA (NOAA Photo Library ID wea04192, NOAA's National Weather Service, via flickr, Images by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory, Photos by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory, NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin (NASA Earth Observatory, Photo by Santa Fe National Forest (National Interagency Fire Center on flickr, public domain), https://earthathome.org/de/talk-about-climate/, https://earthathome.org/de/what-is-climate/, https://earthathome.org/de/recent-climate-change/, https://earthathome.org/de/climate-change-mitigation/, https://earthathome.org/de/climate-change-adaptation/, https://earthathome.org/quick-faqs/#climate, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International licenses. While thats often the situation for the Indian monsoon, the monsoon in North America behaves a bit differently. Not really sure if it's possible to even find that rabbit hole let alone getting to the end of it :) Good luck. Water vapor animation for the afternoon of August 22, 2018 showing the monsoon circulation and thunderstorm formation (dark blue, green, dark red). SW Precipitation Precipitation in the Southwest has two distinct seasons. Elevation does, however, play a key role in precipitation received throughout the Southwest. The average precipitation for the United States is 85.6 centimeters (33.7 inches). Secure .gov websites use HTTPS During much of the year, the prevailing wind over northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico is westerly (blowing from the west) and dry. In the Silurian and Devonian (430 to 359 million years ago), North America moved north across the equator, and the cycle of warming and cooling was repeated yet again. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). The large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere did not extend into the Southwest, even at their maximum area. Photo by Archaeopoda (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, image cropped, resized, and labeled). Some earlier studies suggested that El Nio may be related to lower JulyAugust rainfall, and La Nia related to higher rainfall, due to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. These changes threaten economic productivity, public health, and the sustainability of Indigenous communities. A= Tropical (equatorial),B= Arid,C= Temperate (warm temperate),D= Continental (cold),E= polar. Stages in the formation of a thunderstorm. Map of the modern Yucatn Peninsula region showing the location of the Chicxulub impact crater. | View Google Privacy Policy. Although on the western edge of the North American Monsoon, California plant geography indicates it makes a large contribution to the states southern flora. If you live in the U.S. Southwest or northwestern Mexico, you may already be familiar with the annual climate phenomenon called the North American Monsoon, especially since rainfall in some spots has been way above average this summer. In 2020, Colorado ranked 7th in the nation for solar and wind power production, and Arizona and New Mexico ranked 12th and 13th, respectively. During this time, the only exposed areas were islands in western Colorado and parts of New Mexico. Zack also mentioned our good friend El Nio! Warmer temperatures also make it easier for insect pests to overwinter and produce more generations. Map modified from amap by Chiche Ojeda (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and modified). Unfortunately, unpredictable winds spread the flames, which, combined with dry conditions, caused the Calf Canyon and Hermit Peak fires to grow beyond control. While this will help with the ongoing drought in the southwest, in many regions the precipitation deficit has been building for a long time. The size and location of various lakes in which the Green River Formation sediments were deposited during the Eocene epoch. Las Cruces, New Mexico, 2006. The white arrow is pointing to one of the leaflets of a compound leaf. As of June 2022, it was more than 90% contained. Right (2):Crown of leaves from a mature plant. Weather conditions, particularly hot, dry weather and wind that spreads flames, contribute significantly to the ignition and growth of wildfires. Earth 300 million years ago, during the end of the Carboniferous Period (Pennsylvanian). Water is already scarce in the Southwest, so every drop is a precious resource. The event devastated the Southwest, shifting a densely forested landscape to one primarily covered with fast-growing herbs and ferns. Earth 150 million years ago, near the end of the Jurassic Period. Figure by Emily Becker. Also, the occasional eastern Pacific tropical storm can increase monsoon moisture and rainfall. By early to mid-September, wind patterns have generally reverted back to the westerly pattern, bringing an end to the monsoon. Petrified log at Escalante Petrified Forest State Park, Jurassic Morrison Formation, Garfield County, Utah. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:14. These increased temperatures lead to a whole host of other effects, including a decrease in snowpack, declines in river flow, drier soils from more evaporation, and the increased likelihood of drought and fires. Since then carbon dioxide emissions have been on a downward trend. While two indicators in this report present information about unusually high or low temperatures and drought on a national scale (see the High and Low Temperatures indicator and the Drought indicator), this feature highlights the Southwest because of its particular sensitivity to temperature and drought. The causes of specific weather events such as tornados and severe thunderstorms are incredibly complex, although climate change has enhanced some correlated factors, such as increased wind speed and an unstable atmosphere. Climate change is affecting the Southwest's water resources, terrestrial ecosystems, coastal and marine environments, agriculture, and energy supply. These warmer temperatures and increased precipitation have helped bring on longer growing seasons. Across New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah, summer rains originate from moisture brought into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. 2. Frequent showers and thunderstorms continue well into the summer. Image fromCretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life: Western Interior Seaway(Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 Internationallicense). Today nearly all the glaciers in the Southwest are gone, and the climate is in an arid state. Acad. Modified fromFigure 11 in Kirby et al. This circulation brings thunderstorms and rainfall to the monsoon region, providing much of their annual total precipitation. Its not over yet, but possible that the overall monsoon rainfall in Arizona will end up being the highest on record. As a result of displacement due to continental rifting and seafloor spreading, sea level throughout the Cretaceous was much higher than it is today. 94, 95, 96 Each assessment has consistently identified drought, water shortages, and loss of ecosystem integrity as major challenges that the Southwest confronts under climate change. By the start of the Late Cretaceous, this inland sea, called the Western Interior Seaway, divided North America in two; the water was rich with mosasaurs, giant clams, and other marine life. Layers of gypsum, an evaporate, from the Permian Castile Formation, Eddy County, New Mexico. The average annual temperature in most of the Southwest is predicted to rise 2.2 to 5.5C (4 to 10F) by 2100. MacDonald, G.M. The daily range between maximum and minimum temperatures sometimes runs as much as 50 to 60 degrees F during the drier periods of the year. In New Mexico, for example, average annual precipitation ranges from less than 25 centimeters (10 inches) within the Great Plains and Basin and Range regions to more than 50 centimeters (20 inches) at the higher elevations to the northwest. This page uses Google Analytics. More on that later Now, lets take a sojourn through some North American Monsoon basics (1). In chapter 8.3, How is the water cycle changing and why?, the report states In summary, both paleoclimate evidence and observations indicate an intensification of the NAmerM in a warmer climate (medium confidence). Natural variability, changes in irrigation practices, and other diversions of water for human use can influence certain drought-related measurements. Deer mice are the most important rodent carriers of hantavirus in the Southwest. Copyright 2021 Paleontological Research Institution. Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration. New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado have also reduced their carbon dioxide emissions between 2008 and 2019. The long-range forecast team breaks down region by region what to expect during the summer. Extent of the Western Interior Seaway during the Cretaceous Period. 2010. contiguous U.S. (CONUS) into the Northern Plains. Mesohippusmeasured up to 70 centimeters (2 feet) at shoulder height. A strong difference in air temperature at different heights creates instability; the warmer the air near the surface is relative to the air above it, the more potential (stored) energy the warm air has to move up, and the more potential for a storm. While most of the evidence for cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary comes from the deep sea, fossil mammals in the Rocky Mountains show clear evidence of a change from forests to grasslands, which is associated with global cooling. Winter will be warmer than normal, with above-normal precipitation. Since 800,000 years ago, an equilibrium has been reached between warming and cooling, with the ice caps growing and retreating primarily due to the influence of astronomical forces (i.e., the combined gravitational effects of the Earth, Sun, moon, and planets). Drier conditions occurred through the 1920s/1930s, again in the 1950s, and since 1990, when the Southwest has seen some of the most persistent droughts on record (see Figure 3). Photograph by "Cathy" (Flickr;Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommerical 2.0 Generic license). National Drought Mitigation Center. The map in Figure 1 shows how average annual temperatures in the Southwest from 2000 to 2020differed from the average over the entire period since widespread temperature records became available (18952020). Data from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and ERSSTv5. The North Rim is 8000 feet (2438meters) to 9000 feet (2743 meters) above sea level. Scientists first noted the seasonal rainfall patterns in the Southwest in the early 20th century, with the circulation pattern being understood as monsoonal by midcentury. JavaScript appears to be disabled on this computer. SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS. I listened to the Southwest Climate Podcast from CLIMAS, the Climate Assessment for the Southwest, to learn more about what affects the monsoon and its rainfall, and how Monsoon 2021 is shaping up, and reached out to the podcast co-hosts, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins, for help with this post. Thick salt deposits accumulated in the northwestern Four Corners area as the seas evaporated. Map of the Gulf of Mexico region before the closure of the Isthmus of Panama. Inset image from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PIA03397). The onset of stream flows from melting snow in Colorado has shifted two weeks earlier due to warming spring temperatures. For example, high winter temperatures between 2000 and 2003 correlated to bark beetle outbreaks that devastated pinyon pine throughout the Southwest, leading to nearly 90% mortality at some sites in Colorado and Arizona. Thus, even a small increase in temperature (which drives evaporation) or a decrease in precipitation in this already arid region can seriously threaten natural systems and society. Ornithopod-type tracks, Powell Fossil Track Block Tracksite, Jurassic Navajo Sandstone, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Arizona and Utah. The Palmer Index is calculated from precipitation and temperature measurements at weather stations, and has been used widely for many years. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report covers observed and potential future changes in the North American Monsoon. February 2023 ENSO update: the ENSO Blog investigates, part 3, How the pattern of trends across the tropical Pacific Ocean is critical for understanding the future climate, January 2023 La Nia update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2, Albuquerque, NM National Weather Service office, ENSO does influence Pacific tropical storms, Tucson recorded its wettest month ever this July, Monsoon causes deadly flash flood in Arizona, Images of CO2 emissions and transport from the Vulcan project, TreeFlow: Streamflow Reconstructions from Tree Rings. According to the Kppen classification system, a system of climate classification using latitude band and degree of continentality as its primary forcing factors, Central Asia is a predominantly B-type climate regime. Cambrian trilobites from the Bright Angel Shale (Tonto Group), Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. People in the Southwest are particularly dependent on surface water supplies like Lake Mead, which are vulnerable to evaporation. In the Southwest, climate change may impact a variety of resources, including water availability in the form of snowpack and spring streamflow, the distribution and composition of plant communities, and fire regimes. This project was made possible in part by the Institute of Museum and Library Services (ARPML-250637-OMLS-22).The views, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this website do not necessarily represent those of the Institute of Museum and Library Services. Shallow seas invaded the continent, ultimately covering the whole area until the late Carboniferous. Taken on September 23, 2017. however, the monsoons provide life-giving moisture in a region that is always dry.
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